Europe’s Far Right Has Already Won, Dictating the Continent’s Political Agenda

By Mark Leonard

November 3, 2026

In many ways, Europe’s far right has already won, regardless of what happens at the ballot box in the coming months. Its parties may still quarrel among themselves, but they agree on the three big issues that will define much of the European political agenda for years to come.

BERLIN – Recent events have cast European politics into sharper relief. With left-wing protests, some violent, engulfing cities from Paris to Milan to Madrid, the right has remained focused on big upcoming elections, and most mainstream parties appeared to be in retreat. It may be too soon to guess at the outcomes in Spain, France, Poland, and Italy, but there can be little doubt that far-right and populist ideas will shape the Europe that emerges from these contests. That much is clear to me after spending the past few months talking to leading "new right" politicians and strategists in France, Poland, Germany, and Italy.

The current political landscape in Europe is marked by a significant shift in ideological dominance, with far-right and populist movements consolidating their influence across the continent. This trend, observed through extensive interviews with key figures and strategists in France, Poland, Germany, and Italy, suggests that regardless of specific electoral outcomes in upcoming national contests, the core tenets of the "new right" have already permeated and are actively shaping the broader European political discourse. While internal disagreements persist among these parties, a remarkable consensus has emerged around three pivotal issues that are set to define the continent’s political trajectory for the foreseeable future.

The Ascendancy of the "New Right"

The past few years have witnessed a palpable surge in support for far-right and populist parties across Europe. This phenomenon is not a singular event but rather a complex interplay of socio-economic anxieties, cultural shifts, and political disillusionment. From the National Rally in France to the Law and Justice party in Poland, and the Brothers of Italy to the Alternative for Germany (AfD), these movements have moved from the fringes to become significant political forces, challenging the established centrist and liberal consensus.

Timeline of Key Developments:

• 2015-2016: The European migrant crisis significantly amplifies concerns about immigration and national identity, providing fertile ground for populist rhetoric.
• 2017 onwards: Several far-right parties achieve notable electoral gains in national elections, including France’s National Front (now National Rally) and Austria’s Freedom Party.
• 2020: The COVID-19 pandemic, while initially leading to a surge in national solidarity, later exacerbates economic inequalities and fuels anti-establishment sentiment, which some far-right groups adeptly exploit.
• 2022-2023: Far-right parties secure significant representation in national parliaments and local governments in countries like Italy and Sweden, demonstrating a sustained upward trend.
• 2024-2026 (Projected): A series of national elections in key European countries, including Spain, France, Poland, and Italy, are anticipated to further solidify or expand the influence of the far right.

The Three Pillars of the "New Right" Agenda

The enduring success of the "new right" is underpinned by a strategic focus on three interconnected issues that resonate with a broad segment of the electorate. These issues, while presented with varying nuances by different parties, form a cohesive ideological front that is increasingly dictating the terms of political debate.

1. Sovereignty and National Identity in an Era of Globalization

The first and perhaps most potent weapon in the far-right arsenal is the unwavering emphasis on national sovereignty and the preservation of a distinct national identity. In an era of increasing globalization, supranational institutions like the European Union, and the perceived erosion of traditional values, these parties tap into a deep-seated anxiety about loss of control and cultural dilution.

• Core Arguments: Proponents of this view argue that multilateral agreements and international bodies undermine national decision-making power. They advocate for a return of power to the nation-state, stricter border controls, and a reassertion of national culture and traditions. The narrative often portrays immigrants and refugees not just as an economic or security burden, but as a direct threat to the cultural fabric of the nation.
• Supporting Data: Eurobarometer surveys have consistently shown varying levels of concern among EU citizens regarding national identity and immigration. For instance, a 2023 Eurobarometer poll indicated that a significant percentage of respondents in several member states expressed concerns about the impact of immigration on their national culture. Furthermore, studies by think tanks like the Pew Research Center have documented a rise in nationalist sentiment in many Western democracies over the past decade.
• Implications: This focus on sovereignty often translates into Euroscepticism, with calls for renegotiating or even exiting EU treaties. It also leads to more restrictive immigration policies, increased emphasis on national security, and a potential re-evaluation of international alliances. The debate over "European values" versus "national values" is becoming increasingly polarized.

2. Immigration Control and Security as a Top Priority

Closely intertwined with the concept of national identity is the issue of immigration. Far-right parties have consistently positioned themselves as the primary defenders against what they term "uncontrolled" or "mass" immigration. This stance resonates with segments of the population who feel that their communities are changing too rapidly or that their governments are not adequately protecting their borders.

• Core Arguments: The discourse typically centers on the perceived strain on social services, competition for jobs, and increased crime rates attributed to immigrant populations. There is also a strong emphasis on the security implications, with rhetoric often linking immigration to terrorism and organized crime. Proposals range from immediate deportations and the creation of fortified borders to the complete cessation of asylum claims.
• Supporting Data: Official statistics on immigration flows, asylum applications, and crime rates are often selectively used or reinterpreted within this narrative. While some regions may experience demographic shifts and associated challenges, the far-right often amplifies these issues, creating a perception of crisis. For example, data from Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, can show fluctuations in border crossings, which are then framed by populist movements to underscore their warnings. Reports from Europol also highlight the challenges of cross-border crime, which can be conflated with immigration.
• Implications: This prioritization of immigration control leads to demands for tougher asylum laws, increased funding for border enforcement, and a potential reduction in humanitarian aid and resettlement programs. It also fuels tensions with international humanitarian organizations and can strain diplomatic relations with countries of origin or transit. The debate around integration versus assimilation is often framed through a lens of exclusion.

3. Economic Protectionism and a Rejection of Neoliberalism

The third key pillar of the "new right" agenda involves a critique of globalized economic policies and a call for greater economic protectionism. While not always explicitly articulated as a rejection of capitalism, these movements often advocate for policies that prioritize national industries, workers, and consumers over global market forces.

• Core Arguments: This perspective argues that free trade agreements and global supply chains have led to job losses in domestic industries, stagnant wages for working-class citizens, and a concentration of wealth in the hands of a global elite. They propose measures such as tariffs on imported goods, subsidies for domestic businesses, and a re-evaluation of international trade deals. The narrative often champions the "forgotten" or "left behind" segments of society who have been negatively impacted by economic liberalization.
• Supporting Data: Economic indicators such as deindustrialization in certain regions, rising income inequality, and the impact of global economic shocks (like the 2008 financial crisis or recent supply chain disruptions) are frequently cited. For instance, data from national statistics offices and international bodies like the OECD often illustrate trends in wage stagnation or regional economic disparities that can be leveraged by protectionist arguments. The rise of national debt and the perceived unfairness of global financial institutions also form part of this critique.
• Implications: A shift towards economic protectionism could lead to increased trade disputes, retaliatory tariffs, and a fragmentation of global markets. It could also result in higher consumer prices if domestic industries are less efficient. The emphasis on national economic interests may also challenge existing international economic governance structures and lead to a more fragmented global economic order.

The Unifying Force: A Shared Vision of a Different Europe

Despite their internal differences – for example, the extent to which they advocate for outright withdrawal from the EU versus reforming it from within, or the specific nuances of their cultural conservatism – the "new right" parties share a common diagnosis of Europe’s contemporary challenges and a remarkably unified vision for its future. This vision is characterized by a stronger emphasis on national distinctiveness, a more guarded approach to external influences, and an economic model that prioritizes the nation-state.

The "new right" has proven adept at identifying and articulating the anxieties of a significant portion of the European populace. The recent wave of protests across Europe, while driven by various grievances, can be seen as symptomatic of broader societal discontent that far-right movements have successfully channeled. As these protests highlight existing fault lines, the "new right" offers a seemingly coherent set of solutions, centered on reclaiming national control and identity.

Broader Impact and Future Implications

The consolidation of the far-right’s agenda has profound implications for the future of the European Union and its place in the world. The potential for increased Euroscepticism and a move towards more nationalistic policies could lead to a weakening of the EU’s institutional framework and its ability to act cohesively on the global stage. This could manifest in a variety of ways:

• Internal EU Dynamics: Increased nationalistic sentiment could lead to greater friction between member states, particularly on issues of migration, economic policy, and foreign relations. The principle of solidarity within the EU could be challenged.
• Foreign Policy: A more inward-looking Europe might be less inclined to engage in multilateral diplomacy or to champion liberal democratic values abroad. This could create opportunities for other global powers to increase their influence.
• Economic Order: A shift towards protectionism could disrupt existing trade relationships and potentially lead to a less integrated and more fragmented global economy.
• Social Cohesion: The emphasis on national identity and the critique of immigration could exacerbate social divisions within countries, leading to increased polarization and potential xenophobia.

In conclusion, while the final tally of votes in upcoming European elections will reveal the precise electoral victories of far-right parties, their ideological triumph is already evident. By successfully framing the dominant political debates around sovereignty, immigration, and economic protectionism, they have fundamentally altered the European political landscape. The challenge for mainstream political forces will be to address the underlying concerns that have fueled this rise, without succumbing to the divisive rhetoric that has become the hallmark of the "new right." The coming years will undoubtedly be defined by the ongoing struggle to navigate these complex issues and shape a Europe that can balance national interests with the imperatives of international cooperation and shared values.