The 2026 edition of the Marsh Global Asset Owner Barometer has revealed a significant trend: Canadian asset owners are planning to reduce their exposure to U.S. holdings at a rate higher than any other global region. The comprehensive survey indicates that 52% of Canadian asset owners intend to decrease their U.S. equity allocations. This figure substantially surpasses the North American average of 40%, the Asia Pacific average of 31%, and the 33% average observed in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Concurrently, these Canadian asset owners are signaling an increased appetite for investments in infrastructure. This strategic pivot prompts a critical question for investors and financial advisors: Is this reallocation driven by natural profit-taking from a robust U.S. market, or is it a response to evolving geopolitical tensions that are creating a discernible rift between Canada and the United States?
Christine Tessier, Chief Investment Officer at Marsh People and Investments Canada in Toronto, offers a nuanced perspective on this complex issue. She emphasizes that the surveyed asset owners, predominantly comprised of institutional investors and major money managers, typically adopt a highly strategic and long-term view of market dynamics. This perspective is often less swayed by the immediate political climate than by fundamental economic and structural shifts. However, Tessier acknowledges that significant structural changes have indeed occurred within the bilateral relationship between Canada and the United States, providing a compelling rationale for this strategic realignment among Canadian asset owners.
“Canadians have historically been global investors by nature,” Tessier explained. “When making investment decisions, one is always measuring risk and return. The risk profile associated with investing in U.S. assets has demonstrably changed, particularly from the vantage point of a Canadian investor. Simultaneously, the opportunity landscape is also evolving. Quite independently of the direct relationship between Canada and the U.S., the United States itself is recalibrating its economic relationships with a multitude of global economies, presenting both new risks and opportunities.”
Tessier further elaborated on the broader economic forces at play: “The global economy as a whole is undergoing significant geographical shifts, and these changes are impacting investors across all regions, not exclusively Canadians. While Canadians have certainly experienced a more pronounced degree of impact, leading to significant diversification efforts in various forms, this is a reflection of a wider global economic recalibration.”
A Strategic Reassessment of U.S. Market Investments
Tessier highlights that the Canadian clients Marsh is engaging with have articulated a range of concerns regarding specific U.S. asset classes. These concerns include the inherent concentration risk within U.S. equity portfolios, potential vulnerabilities associated with the U.S. dollar, and the substantial fiscal debt levels underpinning U.S. bonds. She notes that public market assets often command immediate attention in decision-making processes due to their liquidity and ease of divestment. However, Tessier also points to the growing sophistication of private asset categories, such as private debt, in markets beyond the United States, particularly in Europe, which is influencing reallocation strategies among Canadian asset managers.
The fixed income sector, Tessier observes, is currently in a state of flux. This volatility is partly attributed to the high debt levels prevalent in the U.S. and many other developed economies. She also draws attention to the unprecedented pace and volume at which technology companies are issuing debt to finance the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) buildout. Tessier anticipates that debt instruments related to the technology sector will soon constitute as significant a component of global bond indices as traditional government debt. These dynamic shifts within the fixed income landscape are prompting some investors to re-evaluate their traditional perceptions of security and safety associated with U.S. bonds.
In the realm of equity markets, Tessier indicates that Canadian asset owners surveyed by Marsh have expressed a strong inclination to expand their global equity exposures. A portion of this diversification, she attributes to the robust performance of U.S. equities, leading to a desire to spread out profits generated from these strong returns. She views global markets as increasingly competitive in attracting investor capital. While acknowledging the U.S. market’s leadership in certain industries, Tessier emphasizes that asset owners are actively seeking opportunities on a global scale.
Understanding Canada’s Outlier Status
The global macroeconomic forces and the strategic realignments that are incentivizing a move away from U.S. assets are not confined to any single geography; they are influencing asset owners worldwide. Despite this broad applicability, Canadian asset owners have demonstrated the most pronounced willingness to divest from U.S. exposures. Tessier posits three interconnected factors that contribute to this outlier status: a sense of patriotism, a global investment bias, and the aforementioned evolving landscape of investment opportunities.
Tessier notes the presence of a segment of investor clients and asset owners who are channeling a sense of patriotism, particularly prominent in the current environment, into their investment portfolios. This cohort is expressing a preference for investing within Canada and in markets outside the United States. This sentiment aligns with Tessier’s broader observation of Canadians as inherently global investors, especially given the relatively limited scope of industries and investment opportunities available within the domestic Canadian market.
Infrastructure Investment: A Canadian Investment Ethos
The inclination of Canadians towards infrastructure investments, Tessier suggests, is deeply ingrained in their investment "DNA." Canadians possess a well-established expertise in navigating and investing in heavy, capital-intensive industries. Recent incentives introduced by the Canadian Federal Government have further amplified the existing momentum among investors in this sector. However, Tessier also highlights a growing interest in infrastructure funds specifically targeting the development of new infrastructure required to support the burgeoning use and adoption of artificial intelligence. This indicates a forward-looking approach, adapting traditional strengths to emerging technological trends.
While the Marsh survey primarily focused on institutional asset managers, Tessier believes that its findings hold significant implications for retail financial advisors. The overarching takeaway is that the current geopolitical, economic, and technological landscape is inherently uncertain. The future distribution of global power and leadership remains unclear. In such an environment, diversification emerges as a paramount strategy.
“The definitive landscape has not yet been established,” Tessier concluded. “We are witnessing the redrawing of supply lines and the drafting of new geopolitical alliances, but the ultimate outcomes remain uncertain. In such a context, global diversification becomes exceptionally important, and any level of unrewarded risk should be meticulously avoided.”
Supporting Data and Context
The findings of the Marsh Global Asset Owner Barometer are particularly noteworthy when considered against broader economic trends. For years, U.S. equities, particularly those in the technology sector, have been a dominant force in global investment portfolios, offering substantial returns. However, recent years have seen increased scrutiny of U.S. market valuations, coupled with growing concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential impact of trade policies.
The period leading up to the 2026 survey has been marked by significant geopolitical shifts. Heightened trade tensions between major global powers, coupled with ongoing reconfigurations of international alliances, have created an environment of increased uncertainty. For Canada, a nation with a deeply integrated economy with the United States, these shifts can have amplified implications. The Canadian government, for instance, has been actively promoting domestic investment and seeking to strengthen trade relationships with diverse global partners, potentially influencing the strategic calculus of its asset owners.
Infrastructure investment, as highlighted by Tessier, represents a sector that often offers stable, long-term returns and can be less correlated with broader market volatility. Canada has a long history of significant infrastructure development, from its early railway expansion to its modern energy and transportation networks. This established expertise, combined with government initiatives and the growing demand for infrastructure to support new economic sectors like renewable energy and digital connectivity, makes it an attractive proposition for investors seeking diversification and stable income streams.
The rise of AI and its associated infrastructure needs presents a novel investment frontier. The data centers, power grids, and specialized hardware required to support AI development represent a new wave of capital-intensive projects. Canadian asset owners, with their established experience in large-scale industrial investments, are well-positioned to capitalize on these emerging opportunities.
Implications for the Investment Landscape
The strategic shift away from U.S. holdings by Canadian asset owners is more than a mere reallocation of capital; it signifies a broader re-evaluation of global investment strategies in response to a changing world order. For financial advisors, this necessitates a deeper understanding of their clients’ risk appetites and a willingness to explore a wider array of global investment opportunities.
The emphasis on diversification, as articulated by Tessier, is crucial. In an era of heightened uncertainty, spreading investments across different asset classes, geographies, and sectors can help mitigate risk and enhance long-term returns. This includes not only traditional public equities and bonds but also alternative assets like infrastructure, private equity, and real estate, which can offer uncorrelated returns and diversification benefits.
The trend also suggests a potential recalibration of global capital flows. As Canadian investors diversify away from the U.S., capital may increasingly be directed towards other developed and emerging markets, potentially leading to new investment hubs and opportunities. This could foster greater competition among global markets for investor attention and capital.
Furthermore, the growing interest in infrastructure, particularly that linked to new technologies like AI, indicates a forward-thinking investment approach. Asset owners are not simply seeking to move away from perceived risks in the U.S. market but are actively seeking out new areas of growth and innovation. This proactive stance is essential for navigating the complexities of the 21st-century global economy.
The insights from the Marsh Global Asset Owner Barometer underscore the dynamic nature of global finance. The decisions made by large institutional investors often signal broader market trends, and the strategic pivot by Canadian asset owners is a clear indication that the investment landscape is undergoing a significant transformation. Understanding the underlying drivers of these shifts – be they geopolitical, economic, or technological – is paramount for all market participants seeking to adapt and thrive in the years ahead. The message from the data is clear: a globally diversified and strategically agile approach is no longer optional but a fundamental requirement for prudent investment management in an increasingly complex world.
